Air cargo rates poised to rise as FAA grounds all MD-11 freighters after fatal crash

Global air cargo rates are expected to climb in the coming days following the US Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) decision to ground all MD-11 freighter aircraft after last week’s fatal crash involving a UPS cargo plane in Louisville.

According to the latest market update from TAC Index, global airfreight rates rose 2% last week compared to the previous week but remained 3.7% lower than a year earlier. The uptick was initially viewed as typical for the ongoing peak season, when shipping activity and rates normally surge. However, analysts now predict sharper increases as the grounding reduces available cargo capacity.

“This was considered a standard seasonal rise — until the fatal crash of a UPS MD-11F in Louisville,” TAC Index noted. “The grounding of all MD-11 cargo aircraft operated by FedEx, UPS, and Western Global Airlines is expected to significantly impact capacity, especially on transpacific routes, and drive rates higher in the coming days.”

Industry data indicates that as of November 5, there were 57 active MD-11 freighters in service across the three carriers — 27 with FedEx, 26 with UPS, and 4 with Western Global, according to Cirium Ascend Consultancy. Another 51 aircraft of the type remain in storage.

Flight tracking data from FlightRadar24 shows that most MD-11Fs are primarily deployed on domestic US operations, though several also serve international routes. Over the past week, 18 UPS aircraft operated exclusively within the US, while a handful conducted flights to Canada. FedEx, meanwhile, utilized part of its fleet on international services connecting major global hubs including Stansted, Osaka, Guangzhou, Seoul, and Singapore. Western Global’s aircraft were also active on long-haul services to destinations such as Ostend, Hong Kong, and Beersheba.

The FAA’s grounding, issued through an Emergency Airworthiness Directive (AD 2025-23-51), requires all MD-11 freighter operators to carry out immediate inspections before further flights. The order follows the November 4 crash, in which the left-hand engine and pylon detached during takeoff, leading to the aircraft’s loss and the deaths of crew members. The incident is now under investigation.

Although many MD-11Fs operate on U.S. domestic routes, the grounding could create global ripple effects. Airlines may need to redeploy aircraft from international operations to compensate for domestic capacity shortages, potentially tightening supply and pushing freight rates upward worldwide.

As peak season demand continues, the sudden reduction in available freighter capacity could intensify pressure on the already stretched global air cargo network in the weeks ahead.