The Economic Survey 2021-22 forecasted a GDP growth of 8.0-8.5 percent, with exports playing a key role in FY2022-23. During 2021-22, India’s exports improved strongly and surpassed pre-Covid levels. Merchandise exports reached an all-time high of $375 billion in 2021-22 (April-February), surpassing all previous annual export records. However, the recent Russia-Ukraine crisis has fanned global trade anxiety, with rising crude oil prices and supply chain delays as a result of Western sanctions. Despite the fact that India does not have a substantial merchandise trade relationship with Russia or Ukraine, pharmaceuticals, telecom instruments, tea, coffee, marine products, and other exports are likely to be affected.
But India now has an opportunity to increase its wheat exports, as there are disruptions of exports from both Ukraine and Russia — which together account for more than 25 per cent share in global wheat trade. The impact on Indian exports depend upon the length and duration of the crisis, however, it is expected to be a short-term aberration given that both nations are engaged in talks.
