Global air cargo capacity strained amid peak-season pressures

Air freight markets across Asia, Europe, and North America are facing mounting pressure this October, as seasonal demand collides with weather disruptions, trade policy shifts, and infrastructure challenges, according to Dimerco Express Group’s October 2025 Asia-Pacific Freight Market Report.

Exports of semiconductors, artificial intelligence (AI) products, and consumer electronics from Southeast Asia are driving demand growth, while supply chains are being squeezed by rail disruptions on China–Europe corridors, factory shutdowns during China’s Golden Week, and lingering typhoon-related delays. Super Typhoon Ragasa, which struck the Pearl River Delta and Hong Kong in late September, forced widespread flight cancellations and created backlogs at major transit hubs.

Regional Market Highlights

• Taiwan: AI and high-tech shipments keep demand stable, though tariffs are weighing on traditional industries. Rates to the US remain elevated, while space on routes to Penang, Hanoi, and Jakarta is limited.
• South Korea: Demand shows a modest rise, with tight capacity to Singapore and Penang due to strong electronics and machinery flows.
• China:
  • North: Rising demand for Europe as shippers avoid rail services impacted by Belarus border closures.
  • East: Flight reallocations for Apple’s product launches have reduced availability to Southeast Asia.
  • South: Higher rates to the US are being driven by Amazon Prime Day volumes, while European lanes face load restrictions.
• Hong Kong: Limited space on routes to Singapore and Vietnam, with backlogs persisting post-typhoon.
• Southeast Asia:
  • Thailand & Vietnam: Tight capacity due to e-commerce and peak-season shipping.
  • Malaysia & Philippines: Potential slowdowns linked to holidays and weather.
  • Singapore: Quarter-end backlog expected to spill into October.
  • Indonesia: Rates and capacity remain volatile during Golden Week.
• Australia: Capacity remains steady, with only minor holiday disruptions.
• North America:
  • US West Coast to Southeast Asia and India: Demand keeps space tight.
  • Southbound flows to South America: Facing capacity constraints.
  • Central US: Increasing cargo shifts from ocean to air are straining lanes.
  • Mexico: Avianca Cargo is expanding US West Coast connections from Felipe Ángeles Airport, supporting perishables exports.
• Europe: Rising geopolitical risks, including drone activity in Poland and the Baltics, could trigger cancellations and fare increases.

Policy and Market Outlook

On the policy front, US trade reviews under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) and tighter controls on transshipments are shaping logistics strategies, with companies urged to prepare robust compliance documentation.

Global manufacturing data also signals cautious optimism. The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 50.9 in August, its first expansion since mid-2024, driven by higher output and new orders in consumer and investment goods. However, international trade flows remain sluggish and business sentiment subdued.

Dimerco expects October to remain challenging as Golden Week factory closures, adverse weather, Southeast Asia’s surging exports, and evolving trade rules converge. Higher air freight rates and congestion at major hubs appear likely. The firm advises shippers to plan ahead, diversify transport options, and prepare for longer lead times to mitigate risks of delays and shortages.