India’s exports to US record sharpest fall of 2025 amid 50% tariffs impact

India’s exports to the United States plunged in September — the steepest decline so far this year — as the full impact of the 50% US tariffs on Indian goods took hold. The fall underscores New Delhi’s heavy dependence on its largest export market, even as imports from the US continued to rise.

According to data released by the Union Ministry of Commerce & Industry, India’s exports to the US dropped 11.93% year-on-year to $5.46 billion in September, while imports surged 11.78% to $3.98 billion. This downturn came despite Indian exporters rushing shipments ahead of the tariff implementation to cushion the blow.

The US imposed 50% tariffs on Indian products on August 27, 2025, citing trade barriers and India’s continued purchases of Russian crude oil. The move has rendered Indian apparel, leather goods, and other exports less competitive compared with those from Bangladesh and Vietnam.

Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal said that nearly 55% of India’s exports to the US were affected by the punitive duties. “Despite turbulence in the global market, exports have largely held their ground,” Agrawal said. “However, imports grew at a faster pace in September, led by gold, silver, fertilizers, and electronics.”

The Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) noted that September marked the sharpest monthly export contraction of 2025, coinciding with the first full month of tariff impact. “The data shows how severely the new duties have hit India’s outbound shipments,” said GTRI founder Ajay Srivastava, adding that key sectors such as textiles, gems and jewellery, engineering goods, and chemicals bore the brunt.

India’s exports to the US have been sliding steadily since June 2025. After a modest 4.8% rise in May to $8.8 billion, exports have since fallen by nearly 37.5% through September, erasing about $3.3 billion in monthly trade.

Amid the downturn, New Delhi is accelerating trade talks with Washington in hopes of sealing a bilateral trade agreement by November, according to Bloomberg. While most contentious issues have been resolved, India’s oil imports from Russia remain a key sticking point.

An Indian delegation is currently in Washington to advance discussions, Agrawal confirmed, expressing optimism that the renewed momentum could help conclude negotiations soon. “At the current pace, both sides are confident of reaching an understanding before the end of fall,” officials familiar with the matter said.