India’s shipments to US showed a modest rebound in October

India’s shipments to the United States showed a modest rebound in October despite the heavy 50% tariff imposed by the Trump administration, offering brief relief after months of declining exports. Fresh trade data from the commerce ministry indicates that exports to the US rose to $6.3 billion in October, a 14.5% month-on-month increase and the first such rise since May.

However, this recovery remains partial. According to Ajay Srivastava, co-founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), India’s October exports to the US are still well below the $6.9 billion recorded in the same month last year. GTRI’s analysis shows that US-bound shipments have contracted by 28.4% between May and October, wiping out more than $2.5 billion in monthly export value as the tariff regime tightened.

The broader export picture for India remained weak. Fifteen of the country’s top 20 markets posted year-on-year declines in October. Exports to Singapore and Australia saw steep drops of 54.9% and 52.4% respectively, while the UK, Italy, France, and the Netherlands also recorded significant double-digit contractions. Overall, India’s merchandise exports were down 11.8% from a year earlier.

Only a handful of key markets — Spain, China, Hong Kong, Brazil, and Belgium — registered any growth. Spain led with a 43.4% increase, largely driven by higher petroleum product shipments.

GTRI noted that although the October uptick in the US market is encouraging, it does not signal a reversal of the overall slowdown. India’s exports to the US had climbed to $8.8 billion in May before sliding each month — to $8.3 billion in June, $8 billion in July, $6.9 billion in August, and finally to $5.5 billion in September as the tariff fully kicked in.

While detailed product-level data for October is yet to be released, tariff-exempt sectors such as smartphones and pharmaceuticals are expected to have performed relatively better. In contrast, tariff-hit categories — textiles, leather, and engineering goods — continue to face severe pressure.

Engineering goods, which had posted four months of consecutive growth earlier in the fiscal year, experienced a sharp downturn in October. Shipments from the sector slumped 16.7% year-on-year to $9.37 billion, compared with $11.25 billion in October 2024, underscoring the impact of US tariff barriers on India’s flagship export segment.