Energy-importing countries scaling clean energy three times faster than exporters: DNV

Energy-importing countries are expanding clean energy significantly faster than energy-exporting regions as governments seek to reduce their exposure to imported oil and gas, according to the tenth edition of DNV’s Energy Transition Outlook, released on October 7, 2026.

DNV said the disruption to energy supplies through the Strait of Hormuz has strengthened the focus on energy security, prompting importing economies to accelerate domestic power generation, electrification and renewable energy deployment. At the same time, energy exporters outside the Middle East are increasing production to offset supply disruptions, resulting in a slower pace of decarbonization.

Importers accelerate shift away from fossil fuels

The share of non-fossil energy in the primary energy mix of energy-importing regions rose by 2.2 percentage points over the past five years, compared with a 0.7 percentage-point increase in exporting regions.

China, India and Europe have therefore increased their use of non-fossil energy at more than three times the pace recorded across the Middle East, North America and Russia, according to DNV.

The shift is being driven partly by concerns over the reliability and security of imported fossil-fuel supplies. DNV said the disruption around the Strait of Hormuz has increased the incentive for importing countries to diversify energy sources and reduce dependence on oil and gas.

Prolonged Middle East conflict could reduce fossil-fuel demand

The changing energy-security environment could have longer-term implications for fossil-fuel producers. DNV’s latest forecast projects that the Middle East will account for around 40% of global oil production in 2050, down from the 50% share projected in last year’s outlook.

DNV also assessed a scenario in which the Middle East conflict continues through 2030, with oil and gas prices remaining moderately elevated during the period. Under this scenario, global oil and gas demand would be 4–6% lower while the conflict persists.

Demand would subsequently remain 2–5% below DNV’s main forecast for the remainder of the outlook period. The analysis suggests that prolonged disruption could accelerate structural changes in energy consumption as governments and consumers move towards alternative sources.

“Energy security is redrawing the map of the energy transition,” said Ditlev Engel, CEO – Energy Systems at DNV. “Importing regions are accelerating electrification, renewables and storage to reduce their exposure to the most insecure fossil-fuel markets. Exporters, meanwhile, are responding to today’s shortages by increasing investments and production. The result is a widening divide in the speed and direction of the transition.

“While the geopolitical landscape is becoming more complex, there should be no doubt that the energy transition is happening, and that it is already large in scale. However, we must continue to embrace and accelerate it, as everyone is starting to recognize that energy is now part of our critical infrastructure and must be prioritized accordingly”

Solar, wind and batteries widen technology gap

DNV’s outlook also points to an increasing divide between mature clean-energy technologies that are becoming more competitive and emerging technologies that remain dependent on policy support.

Falling costs are supporting faster deployment of solar PV, onshore wind and battery storage. Installed battery capacity has increased 14-fold over the past five years, while solar and onshore wind are increasingly replacing fossil fuels in power generation.

However, technologies considered important for sectors that are difficult to electrify are facing greater cost and competitiveness challenges. DNV has reduced its long-term forecasts for hydrogen and carbon capture and storage by 29% and 15%, respectively, compared with last year’s outlook.

Both technologies are still expected to expand rapidly from relatively low levels, but DNV said stronger policy support will be required to narrow the cost gap and enable wider deployment.

Nuclear power is an exception among higher-cost technologies. DNV expects nuclear to retain its current share of global electricity generation as electrification increases. Installed nuclear capacity is forecast to rise by 30% over the next decade and by 170% by 2060.

Electricity becomes central to energy transition

“Driven by solar, wind and increasingly battery storage, electricity is emerging as the clear winner of the energy transition,” said Sverre Alvik, Director of Energy Transition Research at DNV. “The pace of electrification over the next two decades will be more than twice that of the past two decades. Although importing countries are leading the shift, fossil-fuel exporters are also embracing electrification because it delivers greater efficiency and lower costs.”

The rapid expansion of artificial intelligence is also creating a new source of electricity demand. DNV forecasts that global data-centre electricity consumption will increase from around 400 TWh in 2025 to 1,100 TWh in 2030, almost tripling over the period.

AI-related workloads are expected to overtake conventional data-centre workloads in 2031. Nevertheless, DNV estimates that data centres, including AI applications, will contribute less to global electricity-demand growth through 2040 than electric-vehicle charging and space cooling.

North America is expected to see the strongest initial impact, with data centres accounting for around one-third of the increase in power generation through 2030. In China, DNV expects data-centre-related electricity demand to present a comparatively smaller challenge.

Energy transition remains off track for Paris Agreement

Despite faster electrification and continued growth in renewable energy, DNV expects the current transition trajectory to fall short of the Paris Agreement’s climate objectives.

Energy-related emissions are forecast to decline by 44% by the middle of the century. Based on this pathway, global warming would reach around 2.3°C, while net-zero emissions would not be achieved until the 2090s.

DNV said even that timeline remains uncertain because it depends partly on technologies such as direct air capture, which have not yet been deployed at the scale required.