Global Container Freight Rates Up 130% Since February on West Asia Tensions: Jefferies

Global container freight rates have risen 130 per cent since February 2026, as renewed tensions in West Asia have pushed up shipping costs, according to a report by Jefferies. The increase comes as India’s container-based export-import trade continues to grow.

Rates rebound after a long decline

The report says freight rates had been falling steadily since early 2025, as the elevated rates of 2024 eased with an improving balance between demand and supply. The latest rise has put shipping costs back in focus for businesses in international trade.

Jefferies’ data puts global container freight rates at roughly US$2,000 to US$2,500 in February 2026, after a period of relatively low levels in early 2026. By October 2026 they were around US$4,000 to US$4,500. An accompanying chart shows rates falling well below their 2021-22 highs, recovering during 2024, easing through much of 2025 and early 2026, and then climbing again in recent months.

Suez return a key factor to watch

Jefferies named the possible return of shipping lines to the Suez Canal, despite continuing Middle East tensions, as a key factor to monitor. Changes in shipping routes could affect global freight rates, so developments in the region matter for businesses that depend on international cargo movement.

India’s trade growth stays strong

India’s containerisable export-import trade grew strongly in September 2026. The report says its value rose 23 per cent year on year, with exports up 22 per cent and imports up 23 per cent.

• Exports to the United States rose 48 per cent year on year.
• Exports to the UAE and Saudi Arabia fell by 12 to 15 per cent.

The figures in the report do not show that higher freight rates have already slowed India’s export-import growth.

Port traffic varies by region

Volumes at major ports rose 13 per cent year on year in September 2026, while non-major port volumes fell 1 per cent. Among non-major ports, Gujarat ports grew 3 per cent, and Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu ports grew 6 to 7 per cent. Major and non-major ports on the eastern coast both saw a sharp decline during the month.

Why it matters

Higher ocean freight raises landed costs for Indian importers and cuts margins for exporters who cannot pass costs on. The strong trade growth shows demand holding up for now. If lines return to the Suez Canal, capacity absorbed by longer routes could be released, which could ease rates.