India’s Exports to US Rise 48% in September as Tariff Concerns Accelerate Shipments

Summary

India’s exports to the US increased 48% year on year to US$8.02 billion in September 2026, supported by accelerated shipments and a weak comparison base. The surge came amid tariff concerns, although a subsequent US waiver has eased the immediate Russia-related duty threat that influenced exporters’ decisions.

September surge lifts first-half performance

India’s exports to the US reached US$50.81 billion during April–September 2026, an increase of 11.11% over the corresponding period last year.

The stronger first-half result followed a subdued April–June quarter, when shipments were broadly unchanged. Export activity subsequently picked up, culminating in September’s sharp increase.

However, the comparison reflects an unusually weak September 2025, when exports to the US had fallen to US$5.42 billion following the introduction of higher American duties.

Federation of Indian Export Organisations director general and chief executive Ajay Sahai attributed the latest growth to both frontloading and the favourable base effect. Exporters had sought to move shipments ahead of possible further US tariff action. The Financial Express

Subsequent waiver changes the immediate outlook

The policy position has since changed.

President Donald Trump’s October order implementing the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 waived duties provided for under Sections 112 and 113 of the legislation and the implementing order.

The administration invoked the law’s national-interest waiver provisions and stated that the required certification and explanation had been submitted to Congress.

This is relevant to interpreting the September figures. Export decisions made while additional tariffs were being considered reflect the uncertainty prevailing at that time; the subsequent waiver changes the immediate conditions facing future shipments.

The order also makes clear that specified pre-existing Russia-related sanctions remain unaffected. It should therefore be understood as relief from the particular measures covered by the waiver, rather than the removal of all US sanctions or trade restrictions.

For exporters, that distinction separates the earlier incentive to accelerate deliveries from the policy environment in which subsequent orders will be fulfilled.

Other trade measures remain relevant

The Russia-related tariff issue sits alongside separate US trade actions.

In July 2026, the United States announced Section 301 measures concerning trading partners’ failure to prohibit or effectively enforce restrictions on goods produced with forced labour.

India was placed in the 10% tariff category, subject to the applicable product exemptions. The US also initiated a separate investigation into structural excess capacity and manufacturing production across several economies, including India.

These are distinct policy processes. The waiver under the Russia and Iran legislation does not, by itself, resolve the separate Section 301 measures or investigation.

Businesses assessing landed costs consequently need to distinguish between tariff provisions, product coverage and the legal basis for each action.

US demand forms part of broader export growth

The increase in shipments to America came during a stronger month for India’s merchandise exports overall.

Official figures put September goods exports at US$44.40 billion, up from US$36.08 billion a year earlier. Cumulative merchandise exports reached US$259.89 billion in April–September, an increase of 18.51%.

Growth extended across several major categories. September electronics exports rose 70.44% to US$5.31 billion, engineering goods increased 20.91% to US$12.17 billion, and petroleum products advanced 31.90% to US$6.22 billion.

Organic and inorganic chemicals exports also increased, reaching US$2.94 billion.

These are worldwide export figures, rather than a breakdown of shipments to the United States. They demonstrate the wider sectoral performance accompanying the bilateral increase without establishing which industries accounted for September’s US-bound surge.

Shipment timing complicates demand assessment

Frontloading brings planned deliveries forward. It can strengthen one month’s export performance without producing an equivalent increase in underlying consumption.

The September rise therefore needs to be assessed against subsequent shipments, customer inventories and repeat orders. The available figures do not quantify how much of the increase represented accelerated deliveries rather than additional demand.

For logistics providers, an earlier shipment timetable can alter booking patterns, cargo readiness and delivery schedules. However, export values alone do not establish a corresponding increase in container volumes or airfreight tonnage.

The immediate picture combines stronger merchandise exports, tariff-driven adjustments to shipment timing and a later policy reprieve. Whether the US-bound momentum continues will become clearer as trade data capture orders fulfilled after the waiver.

FAQs

How much did India export to the US in September?

US$8.02 billion, representing 48% year-on-year growth.

Why did shipments increase sharply?

Industry representatives identified accelerated deliveries and a weak September 2025 comparison base.

What does frontloading mean?

It means bringing shipments forward ahead of an anticipated change, such as higher import duties.

Has the Russia-related tariff threat changed?

Yes. A subsequent US order waived the duties covered by specified provisions of the Graham Act.

Does the waiver remove all US tariffs affecting India?

No. Separate trade measures have their own legal provisions and product coverage.