India’s Trade Deficit with China Hits $105.93 Billion in January-September 2026 Despite 40.7% Export Surge

Summary

India’s trade deficit with China widened 20.7% to $105.93 billion in the first nine months of 2026, according to China’s customs data. Indian exports to China grew 40.7% to $19.26 billion, but Chinese exports to India rose 23.3% to $125.19 billion. Bilateral trade climbed 25.4% to $144.45 billion, putting 2026 on course for record levels.

Article

Beijing: India’s trade deficit with China crossed $100 billion in the first nine months of 2026, reaching $105.93 billion, according to data released by China’s General Administration of Customs on Wednesday, October 14. The deficit was 20.7% higher than in the same period last year.

What do the nine-month figures show?

Total bilateral trade rose 25.4% to $144.45 billion between January and September 2026.

China’s exports to India increased 23.3% to $125.19 billion. Indian exports to China grew faster, up 40.7% to $19.26 billion, but from a much smaller base, so the absolute gap continued to widen.

How did the third quarter compare?

The deficit stood at $67.1 billion at the end of June, when China’s exports to India were $79.41 billion and India’s exports to China were $12.31 billion. Based on these figures, the July-September quarter alone accounted for a deficit of about $38.8 billion, with Chinese exports to India of roughly $45.8 billion and Indian exports to China of about $7 billion (calculated from the half-year and nine-month data).

Is 2026 heading for a record?

The nine-month deficit is already within about $10 billion of the record $116.12 billion recorded for calendar 2025, when bilateral trade hit an all-time high of $155.62 billion. At the current pace, both the 2026 deficit and total trade are likely to set new records.

China’s trade data runs on a calendar-year basis, while India’s is compiled for the April-March fiscal year. On India’s own figures, the deficit with China reached a record $112.6 billion in FY2025-26, up from $99.2 billion in FY2024-25, with China overtaking the US as India’s largest trading partner.

What is driving the imbalance?

India imports large volumes of electronics, machinery, chemicals and intermediate goods from China, much of it feeding domestic manufacturing. Electronics alone, under HS Chapter 85, accounted for $43.1 billion of India’s deficit with China in FY26, roughly double the level of FY19.

Indian exports have gained momentum, led by printed circuit boards, display modules, refined petroleum and naphtha, but they remain small relative to imports. India continues to press China for wider market access for its IT, pharmaceutical and agricultural products.

Why does it matter for trade and logistics?

The scale of Chinese imports sustains strong inbound container flows on China-India routes, while the growth of Indian exports to China, particularly electronics components, points to India’s deepening role in regional manufacturing supply chains. For policymakers, the widening gap reinforces the push to localise component manufacturing and diversify import sources, while for ports and shipping lines it underlines the continued weight of China-India trade in India’s overall container volumes.

FAQs

What is India’s trade deficit with China for January-September 2026?

It was $105.93 billion, up 20.7% year on year, according to Chinese customs data.

How much did China export to India?

China’s exports to India rose 23.3% to $125.19 billion.

How much did India export to China?

Indian exports to China grew 40.7% to $19.26 billion.

What was total bilateral trade?

Bilateral trade rose 25.4% to $144.45 billion in the nine months.

Is the deficit likely to hit a record in 2026?

Yes. It is already close to 2025’s record $116.12 billion with three months still to go.