Maritime Connectivity in a Contested World

Trade, Technology and the Resilience of the Global Maritime System

Gan Kim Yong, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Trade and Industry, Republic of Singapore

The Sea as the World’s Artery

It is a privilege to join you this morning for the Singapore Maritime Lecture. For centuries, the sea has been the great connector of civilisations. Today, it remains so. More than 80% of global trade by volume moves by sea. Energy, food, manufactured goods, and critical inputs all flow through maritime networks that span the globe.

These networks are not peripheral to the global economy. They are its arteries, sustaining production, enabling consumption, and connecting markets across continents.

For much of the past half century, these arteries have operated within a system that was broadly stable — underpinned by navigational rights and freedoms enshrined in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, or UNCLOS. These rights and freedoms are existential not only to Singapore’s status as a maritime hub, but also to the growth and functioning of the global economy.

Singapore was one of the architects of UNCLOS, which clearly stipulates the right of transit passage for all ships and aircraft through straits used for international navigation. This right is important for all nations around the world that depend on maritime connectivity and trade.

Under UNCLOS, open trade has flowed freely and shipping networks were optimised for efficiency. Routes were designed to minimise costs, and supply chains were structured for scale. Interdependence was seen as a source of stability and resilience.

A System Under Strain

Today, UNCLOS continues to be the key pillar of the international rules-based maritime order. But what was once a multilateral system underpinned by shared commitment is now increasingly fragile.

Recent developments in the Straits of Hormuz have brought this reality into sharp focus. Shipping through the Straits of Hormuz — one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints — has been severely disrupted since the start of the conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran. In recent days, mixed messages from both sides have underscored just how volatile and fluid the situation has become.

What began as a disruption in a narrow waterway has cascaded quickly across the global economy: through energy prices, transport costs, and production chains. This is not just a regional disruption. It is a systemic shock — a reminder that instability at a single maritime chokepoint can transmit across the global economy within days, with knock-on effects lasting for months or longer.

It is not surprising, therefore, that interdependence is increasingly seen through a different lens — not just as efficiency, but as exposure; not just as connectivity, but as vulnerability.

Three Structural Shifts Reshaping Maritime

These trends reflect deeper structural shifts in the global system. Let me identify three that I believe will define the maritime environment in the years ahead.

The first is the securitisation of trade and connectivity. Trade and connectivity are no longer purely economic in character. They are increasingly shaped by strategic and security considerations. Supply chains are being reconfigured — not just for efficiency, but for resilience. Governments and firms are reassessing dependencies, diversifying sources of supply, and in some cases building deliberate redundancy into their networks. Export controls, sanctions, and investment restrictions are becoming more common. Maritime routes are now evaluated not only for efficiency but for risk and reliability. As a result, the maritime system is becoming more contested and more closely intertwined with geopolitical competition.

The second is the fragmentation of rules and norms. The global trading system has long depended on shared rules, common standards, and effective institutions. But these frameworks are coming under increasing strain. Regulatory regimes are diverging across jurisdictions. Dispute resolution mechanisms are under pressure. Coordination of responses to crisis is becoming more difficult. For the maritime sector, this means greater uncertainty and complexity.

The third is the dual transition — digital and energy — and, increasingly, artificial intelligence. Digitalisation is reshaping how trade flows are managed, through data platforms and real-time coordination, improving visibility and efficiency. At the same time, the energy transition is reshaping how ships and port infrastructure are powered. International shipping, which contributes about 3% of global greenhouse gas emissions, must be part of the solution to the climate challenge.

Alongside these two shifts, a third force is emerging: the application of artificial intelligence across supply chains and maritime operations. Increasingly, AI will enable better forecasting, optimisation of routing, and coordination of flows across more complex networks. In Singapore, we are advancing this through our AI Mission on Connectivity — applying AI to port operations, logistics, and supply chains to strengthen safety, efficiency, and resilience.

The benefits of AI will depend on trusted data and interoperable systems. Without this, AI risks becoming another source of fragmentation rather than a tool for integration.

These three shifts will undoubtedly introduce greater challenges. But they will also open up new opportunities for our businesses and our people. As supply chains are reconfigured and new standards take shape, firms that can adapt quickly will be better positioned to compete. They will need to redesign their operations, diversify their networks, and adopt new technologies.

Singapore’s Commitment: Stability, Rules and Partnership

Singapore’s role in this environment is not passive. Our value as a maritime hub rests on predictability and trust. Ports that operate reliably, rules that are applied consistently, and contracts that are honoured. Singapore’s maritime ecosystem is built on these foundations: strong rule of law, transparent governance, and a thriving ecosystem of maritime services encompassing finance, insurance, legal and arbitration.

Singapore remains a steadfast steward of UNCLOS. We are committed to upholding it as the legal framework that underpins navigational rights and freedoms, including the right of transit passage for maritime trade. Last Thursday, Singapore delivered a joint statement on behalf of Belgium, Malta and Jamaica at the United Nations, reaffirming the right of unimpeded transit passage in straits used for international navigation. Singapore also strongly supported the declaration adopted by the IMO Council last month, which reiterated that the navigational rights and freedoms of commercial vessels must be respected, and called for the protection, safety and welfare of seafarers.

Beyond the maritime domain, we remain deeply engaged in institutions and partnerships that support global trade — the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, and most recently, the Future of Investment and Trade Partnership. This is how small, trade-dependent economies like Singapore can reinforce our continued relevance in the global network.

Closing: Connectivity Must Be Sustained

Ladies and gentlemen, the events in the Straits of Hormuz are a stark reminder of how much the global economy depends on a few critical chokepoints, and of the role that international frameworks and norms play in sustaining the rules-based maritime order. When one of the arteries is disrupted, the impact is immediate and far-reaching.

But these events also remind us that connectivity is not guaranteed. It must be sustained, strengthened, and when necessary, rebuilt.

In the years ahead, the question is not whether shocks will occur — they will. The question is whether our system can absorb those shocks and continue to function well. That is the task before us. And we must approach it with resolve and a shared commitment to keep the world connected.