Oil and gold imports push India’s October trade deficit to US$39.88 billion

India’s merchandise trade deficit widened to a one-year high of US$39.88 billion in October 2026, as higher energy costs and festive-season gold purchases pushed imports up nearly 20% from September. The Commerce Ministry’s figures, released on 13 November, showed that the import surge outweighed a record month for Indian goods exports.

Merchandise imports rose to US$89.35 billion from US$74.61 billion in September, while exports increased to US$49.47 billion from US$44.40 billion. The gap widened by US$9.67 billion in a month, or about 32%. It remained below the record US$42.58 billion deficit recorded in October 2025.

Higher crude prices and Diwali demand lift imports

India’s petroleum import bill, which consists mainly of crude oil, rose 54.3% year on year to US$22.82 billion. Petroleum accounted for just over a quarter of the value of all goods imported in October. Disruptions in global energy markets linked to the conflict in West Asia drove up crude costs, with the average price of the Indian crude basket nearing US$120 a barrel, according to government estimates. India imports close to 85% of its crude oil requirements.

Gold imports climbed to US$5.51 billion from US$1.80 billion in September as jewellers and consumers stepped up purchases ahead of Diwali. The US$3.71 billion increase in gold imports accounted for roughly a quarter of the month-on-month rise in the overall merchandise import bill.

Engineering goods and electronics help lift exports to a record

India’s merchandise exports rose about 45% year on year in October. Commerce Secretary Rajesh Agrawal identified petroleum products, electronics, engineering goods, and gems and jewellery among the categories that contributed to the record.

Over the first seven months of financial year 2026–27, merchandise exports rose 22% year on year to US$309.06 billion. Imports increased 16.4% to US$527.21 billion. The United States remained India’s largest export market, with shipments valued at US$59.52 billion in April–October, up from US$51.99 billion in the same period a year earlier.

Services offset about half of the October goods deficit

The Commerce Ministry estimated October services exports at US$40.51 billion and imports at US$20.72 billion. The resulting US$19.79 billion services surplus brought the combined goods and services deficit to an estimated US$20.09 billion for the month. Across April–October, combined exports rose 16.66% year on year to an estimated US$568.84 billion.

What the trade figures mean for ports and shipping

The trade figures capture the dollar value of shipments. Higher crude prices can lift the import bill even when tanker cargo volumes hold steady. At Indian gateways, petroleum tonnage and laden export container counts are the measures that show whether the changes in trade value translated into more cargo moving through ports.

FAQs

Why did India’s trade deficit widen despite record exports?

The goods import bill rose by US$14.74 billion from September, while exports increased by US$5.07 billion. Higher petroleum costs and a jump in gold purchases contributed to the widening gap.

How did October 2026 compare with October 2025?

The merchandise trade deficit was US$2.70 billion smaller than a year earlier, when it reached a record US$42.58 billion.