Xeneta Sharply Revises 2026 Air Freight Outlook as Middle East Conflict Reshapes Market

Xeneta has significantly revised its 2026 Air Freight Outlook, pointing to the sustained impact of the Middle East conflict on global air cargo supply chains and rates.

The market intelligence provider now projects shipper long-term rates will rise between 5 and 15 percent this year, a sharp reversal from its December 2025 forecast of a 5 to 10 percent decline. Xeneta attributed the shift to the supply shock triggered by the conflict’s escalation on 28 February 2026, which wiped out 12 percent of global air cargo capacity overnight. As a result, global capacity grew just 1 percent in the first half of 2026.

Demand, meanwhile, has outpaced expectations. Global air cargo demand rose 4 percent in the same period, surpassing Xeneta’s original full-year forecast of 2 to 3 percent growth. The resulting supply-demand imbalance pushed combined spot and long-term air freight rates up 17 percent year-on-year in the first half of 2026.

Niall van de Wouw, Chief Airfreight Officer at Xeneta, said spot rates have plateaued after an unprecedented surge but are not yet declining. Xeneta expects demand growth to moderate in the second half of the year as capacity gradually recovers, with capacity growth likely to reach the lower end of its revised 2 to 3 percent range.

The outlook also flags a structural shift in demand drivers. Artificial intelligence-linked shipments are expanding rapidly, with global semiconductor sales jumping 106 percent year-on-year in April 2026, the sharpest rise on record since 1986, fuelling growth on the Transpacific trade despite representing under 10 percent of total air cargo volumes.

Conversely, e-commerce demand is weakening, with China’s low-value export shipments falling for a sixth consecutive month in May 2026, partly due to new European Union import rules on low-value parcels. Van de Wouw said AI is now replacing e-commerce as the primary growth engine for air freight, while warning that geopolitical uncertainty remains the market’s biggest risk factor.