Iran War Anxiety Drives Global Container Shipping Rates To Double 

Global container shipping rates have surged as war anxiety over Iran has pushed spot prices for Asia–U.S. shipments to roughly double since the conflict began in late February, according to Reuters and market data. The Drewry Container Index shows the off-contract spot price for a 40-foot container from Shanghai to Los Angeles hit USD 4,565 on Thursday. At the same time, the rate to New York was USD 5,505, with both Xeneta and Drewry reporting near-100% increases from end-of-February levels.

The surge is primarily driven by sharply higher fuel costs and a rush of importers to secure capacity before prices climb further, as carriers cancel bookings, skip port calls and implement surcharges to navigate the volatile Middle East. Very-low-sulfur fuel oil (VLSFO) prices have jumped 55% to about USD 845 per ton since the conflict erupted, adding roughly USD 5.5 billion in extra bunker fuel costs for container carriers overall, with Hapag-Lloyd alone facing up to USD 50 million in weekly extra costs.

The Middle East conflict has also disrupted trade flows, with the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed and carriers rerouting beyond the Red Sea, forcing higher fuel burns and longer transit times, which further pressurize rates. Despite the spike, rates remain well below the peak of USD 16,000 seen in early 2021 during the COVID pandemic, though volatility on Middle East-linked routes is now comparable to COVID-era extremes.

The war’s impact on freight is spreading across all modes, with oil prices above USD 100 per barrel pushing diesel higher and creating upward pressure on ocean and air rates, while shippers are pulling imports forward to avoid further cost erosion. Industry analysts caution that shippers should not panic, but the situation is likely to keep rates elevated and capacity tighter in the coming weeks as the conflict continues.